Scoring the Tea Party Debate

I know I'm biased, so I'll leave it to the pundits. Everyone agreed--Mitt won.

Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard:

If a debate more than four months before the first vote is cast can influence the outcome of a presidential nomination race, the debate last night among eight Republicans should aid Mitt Romney’s candidacy. Seldom has there been as clear a winner.

Romney was crisp and succinct, prepared and focused, and aggressive in going after his chief rival for the GOP presidential nomination, Texas governor Rick Perry, when he needed to be.  Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, showed once again that he’s a far better candidate now than he was four years ago. 

He did well in these instances, among others:  spelling out the differences between the health care plan he championed in Massachusetts and Obamacare; explaining the problem with the Fair Tax is that it gives short shrift to the middle class; pointing out the built-in advantages Perry has in Texas in governing successfully; and refraining from boasting, except to say that “if America needs a turnaround, that’s what I do.”

...
The candidates were asked what they’d bring to the White House – what thing. Romney gave the best answer after repeating the Winston Churchill quotation that America always does the right thing after trying everything else first. He said he’d bring the bust of Churchill, sent away by President Obama, back to the White House.

Chris Cilliza of the Fix:


WINNERS
* Mitt Romney: Four debates. Four times Romney has wound up in the winner’s circle. It’s not a coincidence. Romney proved yet again that he is the best debater in this field with another solid performance in which he effectively downplayed his liabilities on health care and accentuated his strengths on jobs and the economy. Romney played more offense than he has in previous debates, taking the fight to Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Social Security. He also got a major assist from Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.), both of whom relentlessly bashed Perry. But that’s how debates work. Romney also, smartly, ignored the tea party audience in the hall — who occasionally booed him — and focused his messaging on the much broader audience of people watching the debate on CNN.

Mark Halperin of Time Magazine:

Well prepared and confident when confronting Perry on Social Security, but the crowd was not with him, even when he offered up Tea-pleasing lines. Still, another good night for him in the era of the two-man race: he was on the receiving end of very few shots (and those he got, he deflected pretty well), while it was Perry-as-piñata night yet again. Romney was not as good (or presidential) as last time, but still best in show.

Hat tip:  Evangelicals for Mitt and The Corner

Only Romney leading Obama in PA

A new poll surveying the 2012 election in the important state of Pennsylvania shows only Romney leading Obama:

Romney--44%, Obama--42%
Obama--45%, Santorum--43%
Obama--45%, Perry--39%
Obama--47%, Bachmann--39%

Romney Leading Pack in SC

Good news for Mitt with this new poll out of South Carolina:

Romney--25%
Palin--16%
Bachmann--13%
Cain--10%
Giulani--6%
Perry--6%
Gingrich--3%
Santorum--2%
Paul--2%
Huntsman--<1%
Pawlenty--<1%

It seems odd that Perry is so low, being a Southerner, but that may change when he formally announces. And Palin seems unlikely to run, which will also change the results (Giulani likewise). It also seems odd that Hunstman and Pawlenty (and Paul) poll so poorly.

Chaffetz endorses Romney over Hunstman

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who worked as Gov. Hunstman's chief of staff, has endorsed Romney over his former boss according to this LA Times article:

"It was a little difficult," Chaffetz said. "Jon Huntsman is a good man, but when your goal is to beat Barack Obama I just think Mitt Romney is in a much better position to do that. He's laid this foundation for years. He's got a wonderful organization, the ability to raise the type of money [needed]. And I just think he's going to make a great president. I think we need that type business background to get our economy back in shape."

Romney Leads Obama, Fellow Republicans in NH

The latest poll out of New Hampshire looks good for Romney:

GOP Nomination
Romney--35%
Bachmann--12%
Paul--7%
Giuliani--7%
Perry--7%
Pawlenty--3%
Palin--3%
Hunstman--2%
Cain--2%
Gingrich--1%
Santorum--<1%

General Election
Romney--47%, Obama--43%

Romney Leads Pack in Latest Poll

The newest poll from Fox News has Romney garnering the highest percentage of those picking their first and their second choice for the GOP nomination:

First Choice
Romney--18%
Perry--13%
Bachmann--11%
Giuliani--10%
Palin--8%
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Pawlenty--3%
Huntsman--3%
Gingrich--3%
Santorum--2%

Second Choice
Romney--18%
Bachmann--17%
Palin--10%
Giuliani--9%
Cain--6%
Gingrich--6%
Perry--5%
Paul--4%
Pawlenty--2%
Huntsman--2%
Santorum--2%

When Palin was removed as a choice, respondents selected (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--20% (+2)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--12% (+1)
Giuliani--11% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--3%
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--2%

 When Giuliani was removed a choice, respondents chose (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--22% (+4)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--13% (+2)
Palin--9% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--4% (+1)
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--3% (+1)

A few of takeways--people flock to Romney more than any other candidate when their preferred candidate isn't available; this will make it hard for others to overtake Romney since not everyone on this list will run. Second, candidates at the bottom of this list are having a hard time getting any traction. Third, there is a bit of a flavor-of-the-month effect as new entries start of strong, and then seem to fade. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bachmann and Perry.

Romney Currently Edges Bachmann in Iowa

Despite plans to not campaign hard for Iowa, Romney currently leads Michele Bachmann, though only slightly, in the latest poll from the Hawkeye State:

Romney--23
Bachmann--22
Gingrich--7
Paul--7
Pawlenty--6
Santorum--4
Huntsman--2

Hat tip and photo from Fox News.

Romney in Stronger Position Than JFK Was

A new Gallup Poll shows that 22% of Americans would not vote for a Latter-day Saint (Mormon) for President. That might seem high, but the poll points out that in 1959, 25% of Americans said they would not vote for a Catholic for President, and the next year the nation elected JFK.

Krauthammer's View on the Mitt Plege Pseudo-Controversy

Link here. Hat tip:  Evangelicals for Mitt.

Well, he’s taken some shots from some of his competitors — Santorum and Bachmann — over this. And I think they are cheap shots, because he issued a very strong pro-life statement which endorsed just about everything in the pledge including, for example, appointing judges who respect the Constitution [and] don’t legislate from the bench, which is obviously a reference to the abortion decision in 1973, defunding Planned Parenthood, defunding U.N. programs and others that promote abortion, and as we just heard, the fetal pain bill, where you support legislation to ban abortions after a point where the fetus becomes sentient to pain. On all of that, he issued his own strong statement.

His problem is one of the statements in the pledge implies that — or can be interpreted to mean that — if some subsidiary or auxiliary of a large, say, chain of hospitals is engaged – even in a peripheral way – in abortions, the federal government can’t provide Medicaid or Medicare to any of those hospitals. Which is an absurdity, and that’s why he didn’t want to sign. And the Susan B. Anthony List itself later issued a statement saying it wanted to exclude that. So in fact, it endorsed the Romney position.

I think he’s made a strong statement. I’m not vouching for what lies deep in his heart. You can never do that with any candidate on anything. But his statement is extremely strongly pro-life. …
If I could make one remark on the idea of signing a pledge in general — every candidate ought to be able to frame a major issue with his own words. That’s what is wrong with a pledge. It’s written by others and it constrains you. That’s why even pledges on taxes are not useful. You ought to say what you want. [If] somebody else writes it — it can be misinterpreted.

Mitt's Pro-Life Pledge

I am pro-life and believe that abortion should be limited to only instances of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.

I support the reversal of Roe v. Wade, because it is bad law and bad medicine. Roe was a misguided ruling that was a result of a small group of activist federal judges legislating from the bench.

I support the Hyde Amendment, which broadly bars the use of federal funds for abortions. And as president,

I will support efforts to prohibit federal funding for any organization like Planned Parenthood, which primarily performs abortions or offers abortion-related services.

I will reinstate the Mexico City Policy to ensure that nongovernmental organizations that receive funding from America refrain from performing or promoting abortion services, as a method of family planning, in other countries.  This includes ending American funding for any United Nations or other foreign assistance program that promotes or performs abortions on women around the world.

I will advocate for and support a Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act to protect unborn children who are capable of feeling pain from abortion.

And perhaps most importantly, I will only appoint judges who adhere to the Constitution and the laws as they are written, not as they want them to be written.

As much as I share the goals of the Susan B. Anthony List, its well-meaning pledge is overly broad and would have unintended consequences. That is why I could not sign it. It is one thing to end federal funding for an organization like Planned Parenthood; it is entirely another to end all federal funding for thousands of hospitals across America. That is precisely what the pledge would demand and require of a president who signed it.

The pledge also unduly burdens a president’s ability to appoint the most qualified individuals to a broad array of key positions in the federal government. I would expect every one of my appointees to carry out my policies on abortion and every other issue, irrespective of their personal views.

If I have the opportunity to serve as our nation’s next president, I commit to doing everything in my power to cultivate, promote, and support a culture of life in America.

Romney Clearly the Frontrunner in New Poll

Some have argued Romney is a "soft" frontrunner, but he's putting daylight between himself and other candidates according to a new poll by Rassmussen:

Romney:  33%
Bachmann:  19%
Cain:  10%
Gingrich:  9%
Paul:  7%
Santorum:  6%
Pawlenty:  6%
Huntsman:  2%
Someone Else:  8%

How Did Mitt Do?

Tonight was the second debate of the GOP primary season--the first one with all of the major committed candidates. This is what the pundits watching thought of Romney' performance:

"Mitt Romney came across like a frontrunner, taking the debate directly to the president — serious, steady, generous, and respectful of the rest of the Republican field."

"Romney was on his game — smooth, relaxed, and unflappable."

"...I think Romney has come across well. He knows how to handle himself..."

"Half an hour into this debate, Romney is shining as the most polished candidate with the smartest, most well-considered answers. He looks like the adult in the room."

Romney Lives More Like Us Than You Think

This bit of news about how Romney flies coach (isn't the first time I've heard of this) reminded me of a Romney-siting my father told me about. My parents used to live in Heber, UT, which isn't too far away from where the Romneys used to own a home (the Park City, UT area).

My dad went into a hardware store one day, only to be told that Romney had just left driving his jeep (yes, jeep--not a BMW or Mercedes or Humvee). Mitt had been in to buy some part because his wife was having him fix something that broke at the house. How many multi-millionaires do you know that do their own home repairs, and fly coach. One could argue that the latter act was for show, but it is hard to argue the first was, and together they form the pattern of a man who is wise with his money, and lives a lot like everyone else does.

I wouldn't mind having someone like that in the White House.

Romney Most Qualified According to Poll

A Fox News poll has found that Romney is perceived as the most qualifed GOP candidate:

Percent Who See the Nominee as Qualifed--

Romney:  68%
Gingrich:  58%
Pawlenty:  43%
Palin:  41%
Cain:  32%:

Looking at Just Republicans:

Romney:  85%
Gingrich:  81%
Palin:  67%
Pawlenty:  57%
Cain:  49%

Romney is also the most preferred nominee among Republicans:

Romney:  23%
Guiliani:  13%
Palin:  12%
Cain:  7%
Pawlenty:  7%
Paul:  5%
Bachmann:  4%
Santorum:  4%
Huntsman:  2%

Romney Looks Strong in SC

Romney's faith contiunes to not be an obstacle in South Carolina, where he finished fourth in 2008.  A new PPP poll show him up by 9% over Palin:

Romney: 27
Palin:  18
Gingrich:  12
Cain:  12
Bachmann:  9
Paul:  7
Pawlenty:  4
Huntsman:  2

And SC isn't an outlier, with PPP reporting:  "Our most recent polls have him leading by 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire."

These are the first four primary/caucus states, and victories in at least a couple would put Romney in a very strong position. Victories in all four would likely end the primary contest.

Hat Tip:  Evangelicals for Mitt